EUR/USD forecast
10 August 2009
H4 graph
The pair retreated by going below level 1.4300 (went under “E” and “Z” trend lines), which was a precondition for reaching the first support – level 1.4100 (the lower bound of “B-B+” daily uptrend, “B+” trend line). A correction is quite possible from there back to resistance level 1.4300, and then downtrend will be resumed. In case the pair gets below 1.4100 (the lower bound of “B-B+” daily uptrend) for the second time, it will get down to support level 1.3850 (the lower bound of “C-C+” weekly sideways trend).
Trend status: downtrend
Resistance: 1.4300 (key)
Support: 1.4100 (strong), 1.4010 (intermediate), 1.3950 (intermediate), 1.3850 (key)
Daily graph (from 08.09.09)
The pair went below level 1.4300 (got under “E” and “Z” trend line), which was a precondition for reaching the first support – level 1.4100 (the lower bound of “B-B+” daily uptrend, “B+” trend line).
The market is lacking a stimulus to hold ground above level 1.4300 (this level was characterized as a strong resistance in previous forecast), which is evidence that the pair is looking for a strong support now. A strong support is supposed to be found at level 1.3850 (the lower bound of “C-C+” weekly sideways trend, “C” trend line.) But before hitting that level the market must confidently go below level 1.4100, which will be a signal, that daily downtrend has started to develop. An intermediate drop target is supposed to be found at support level 1.3850 and the target – at 1.3285.
Next, before the pair starts to drop to level 1.3285, the pair must get under a very strong support 1.3850, made up by “C” and “D” trend lines. Correction is possible from that support to level 1.4100, and possibly to 1.4300 (if 1.4100 doesn’t resist decently). After the pair gets under level 1.3800, the first wave of weekly downtrend is supposed to start, having the drop target set to support level 1.3285.
Trend status: sideways
Resistance: 1.4300 (strong)
Support: 1.4100 (strong, but intermediate), 1.3850 (key).
Weekly graph (from 05.24.09)
The pair is set against the accumulation of supports 1.4100 and 1.4400 formed by “E” and “F” trend lines correspondingly. These are very strong trend lines. Moreover, “Z” trend line passes through level 1.4400, what further increases the importance of this resistance thus making it a key one. Strengths and chances are equal so, basically, either 1.4100 or 1.4400 may become a turning level (we shall examine daily graph for details). In the 4th correctional wave, the pair will go for a correction from one of these levels to support level 1.3285 and then, in the 5th wave, it will head to the maximum 1.4720 to update it (level 1.4720 update is assumed by the picture at daily graph as well as by the fact that “Y” trend line got broken). All these five waves will make up the “D-D+” uptrend; its extremum will be found at resistance level 1.4935 or 1.5300.
Monthly graph (from 05.24.09)
Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).
Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.
I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).
Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.
I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).
