EUR/USD forecast

   The pair got over level 1.3990, what lead to execution of the “triangle” figure by breaking its higher bound. Such technical picture speaks in favor of rising to levels 1.4330 and 1.4450. However, after taking a look on a complex market view, which takes into consideration all the tendencies over main currency pairs as well as gold, oil and different indexes and also daily graph (and senior time frames) of the pair itself, a conclusion is obvious that the pair will go to level 1.3550 anyway. We should also take into account that yesterday pair rallies were caused by force majeure (unpredictable EU-person speech); so we can state that breaking of “triangle” was not technical (harmonic).

 

   I can’t resist a feeling that yesterday speech was specially meant to spread panic around the market and, by doing so, gather stops set by the selling traders above level 1.3990, where they’re expecting the pair; after enough stops are gathered, to push the pair downwards again deliberately. Or else, when the whole market was expecting pair to go down, it couldn’t go down according to the market equilibrium law. Lack of up-trending impulse (the impulse had been lost today) also speaks in favor of going down. And that’s in spite the fact that after breaking a figure, especially a “triangle”, the impulse should have been lasting for at least two days, especially after the market had been preparing itself for breaking for a half of a month.

 

   I keep my sells open and waiting for the pair at level 1.3550. In order to amplify down-trending potential, eur/usd will need to go below level 1.3960, and then below 1.3850/1.3800. Resistance is currently at level 1.4080.

 

 

   The pair is set against the accumulation of supports 1.4100 and 1.4400 formed by “E” and “F” trend lines correspondingly. These are very strong trend lines. Moreover, “Z” trend line passes through level 1.4400, what further increases the importance of this resistance thus making it a key one. Strengths and chances are equal so, basically, either 1.4100 or 1.4400 may become a turning level (we should wait for a signal of “B-B+” trend’s turn). Upon “B-B+” trend line breaking and in the 4th correctional wave, the pair will go for a correction from one of these levels to support level 1.3285.

 

 

   The pair is set against the accumulation of supports 1.4100 and 1.4400 formed by “E” and “F” trend lines correspondingly. These are very strong trend lines. Moreover, “Z” trend line passes through level 1.4400, what further increases the importance of this resistance thus making it a key one. Strengths and chances are equal so, basically, either 1.4100 or 1.4400 may become a turning level (we shall examine daily graph for details). In the 4th correctional wave, the pair will go for a correction from one of these levels to support level 1.3285 and then, in the 5th wave, it will head to the maximum 1.4720 to update it (level 1.4720 update is assumed by the picture at daily graph as well as by the fact that “Y” trend line got broken). All these five waves will make up the “D-D+” uptrend; its extremum will be found at resistance level 1.4935 or 1.5300.

 

 

   Strategically, the graph shows that the pair is developing a downtrend having the target set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). This situation took effect after the “P-P+” uptrend had been broken along with “E-E+” trend and “F” trend line. But there are reasons that until the maximum 1.4720 is updated, the pair is unable to develop a downtrend to 1.1000. That reasons are well seen on weekly graph. Besides, it’s a simple logic that the pair can’t go to 1.1000 from current levels prior to formation of a trend-continuing figure (like “flag”, which is being formed now) or a side trend which would update the maximum 1.4720 (basically, such side trend is the same “flag” figure).
   Above the level 1.4720 is an accumulation of resistance levels 1.4935 and 1.5300 (these levels are examined in detail at weekly graph). Hence, after updating the maximum 1.4720 the pair will push off 1.4935 or, if it will get over 1.4935, off 1.5300 (which is a key level). Accumulation of these resistances is meant to become a turning, key level for the pair; and a supporting point for the “flag” figure’s higher bound. From there, the market will develop a downtrend aimed at the figure’s lower bound, roughly at level 1.2800. After passing that level the “flag” figure will have been executed and the next dropping target will be set to level 1.1000 (“Q” trend line). Then, a correction is supposed to be performed from there to level 1.3000 and down again to 1.0000.
   I would like to note that the feeling arises as if the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure is being formed now, however we definitely won’t see a clear “head and shoulders” figure there, especially if the pair goes up to level 1.5300. The neckline will get falsely broken for multiple times due to invalid figure proportions. That’s why it is better to get oriented to the “flag” figure (which virtually is the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” figure).