GBP/USD forecast
17 March 2010
H1 graph
The pair is trading along an uptrend, but according to the complex picture of the market, a downtrend is very likely to start developing.
Variant #1 of events to proceed:
In case the pair drops below level 1.5270, it will get to support 1.5230 (the “X” trendline). Then, if the downside momentum persists and the pair takes an opportunity to go below 1.5205, the next target level will be seen at 1.5120.
Variant #2:
Upon getting to 1.5230, a rebound is possible with a potential of further development of the uptrend. In such case we should expect the pair to rise to resistance level 1.5350 and also to 1.5410.
Support:
1.5230 è 1.5120
Resistance:
1.5350 è 1.5410
H4 graph
The pair is trading along the uptrend, which had the target at level 1.5195. If gbpusd rises above this level, the new target will be seen at level 1.5410 (“X” trendline). Also in such case the “double bottom” figure will be executed.
Otherwise, if the pair fails continuing upside and drops below level 1.5130, we may expect it to get down to level 1.4950 (“a” trendline).
The pair is trading along an uptrend, but according to the complex picture of the market, a downtrend is very likely to start developing.
Variant #1 of events to proceed:
In case the pair drops below level 1.5270, it will get to support 1.5230 (the “X” trendline). Then, if the downside momentum persists and the pair takes an opportunity to go below 1.5205, the next target level will be seen at 1.5120.
Variant #2:
Upon getting to 1.5230, a rebound is possible with a potential of further development of the uptrend. In such case we should expect the pair to rise to resistance level 1.5350 and also to 1.5410.
Support:
1.5230 è 1.5120
Resistance:
1.5350 è 1.5410
H4 graph
The pair is trading along the uptrend, which had the target at level 1.5195. If gbpusd rises above this level, the new target will be seen at level 1.5410 (“X” trendline). Also in such case the “double bottom” figure will be executed.
Otherwise, if the pair fails continuing upside and drops below level 1.5130, we may expect it to get down to level 1.4950 (“a” trendline).
Daily graph (from 05.03.10)
After rising above level 1.5130 the pair got a possibility to leave the “B-B+” downtrend. In case it will get over level 1.5230, the pair will reach its target level 1.5410 (the 4th Elliot wave, a correction wave). Upon the fact of reaching that level I expect a downtrend to develop having the drop target set at level 1.4350 (the 5th wave).
Alternatively, if wave picture fails and in case the pair rises above level 1.5550, then upon the fact of leaving the “F-F+” weekly downtrend the pair will get to level 1.6000 - the higher bound of the green downtrend.
Alternatively, if wave picture fails and in case the pair rises above level 1.5550, then upon the fact of leaving the “F-F+” weekly downtrend the pair will get to level 1.6000 - the higher bound of the green downtrend.
Weekly graph (from 31.01.10)
(See daily graph)
The pair is trading along the “E-E+” downtrend having the drop target seen at level 1.4355. Level 1.5410/60 (X trendline) is now the level of turn and resuming of the downside - this is variant #1.
Variant #2 is going to happen on a special case, if level 1.5460 (X trendline) won’t manage to keep the pair from the upside and it gets above level 1.6000. Then the “E-E+” downtrend won’t exist anymore and the pair will reach level 1.6950 (F trendline). After that, if the pair gets over 1.7000, it will eventually end up at 1.8530.
Variant #3 is also worth discussing:
If the downtrend is still very strong after getting down to level 1.4355, the pair may drop to 1.3650 (R trendline from monthly graph).
There is also variant #4:
If the pair loses its downside momentum after getting down to level 1.4355 and rises above level 1.5410, the downtrend will fade and the market will go up to level 1.6950. Next, similarly to variant #2, a “double bottom” figure will be formed and the pair will then rise above 1.8530, to level 1.9500.
The pair is trading along the “E-E+” downtrend having the drop target seen at level 1.4355. Level 1.5410/60 (X trendline) is now the level of turn and resuming of the downside - this is variant #1.
Variant #2 is going to happen on a special case, if level 1.5460 (X trendline) won’t manage to keep the pair from the upside and it gets above level 1.6000. Then the “E-E+” downtrend won’t exist anymore and the pair will reach level 1.6950 (F trendline). After that, if the pair gets over 1.7000, it will eventually end up at 1.8530.
Variant #3 is also worth discussing:
If the downtrend is still very strong after getting down to level 1.4355, the pair may drop to 1.3650 (R trendline from monthly graph).
There is also variant #4:
If the pair loses its downside momentum after getting down to level 1.4355 and rises above level 1.5410, the downtrend will fade and the market will go up to level 1.6950. Next, similarly to variant #2, a “double bottom” figure will be formed and the pair will then rise above 1.8530, to level 1.9500.
Monthly graph (from 05.25.09)
Bounce off level 1.3900 (“R” trend line) had provoked a rapid growth of the pair. The peak of growth is meant to be found at level 1.6900 (“F” trend line). Upon reaching this level there will be two variants of events to develop:
1. Having bounced off level 1.6900 and after the “D-D+” weekly trend is broken, the pair will get to support 1.4355.
2. If level 1.6900 is unable to show a sufficient resistance (the pair goes above this level), the pair will reach resistance 1.8530.
