GOLD forecast
22 March 2010
Forecast for the next week, from March 22 to 26. H4 graph (dated 03/22/10)
By going under level 1118 (the basis of a “double top” trend-turning figure) the gold has formed the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure. The potential of that figure pushes the market towards drop to level 1074.50. On the way down to that level daily and weekly trends will be turned from uptrends to downtrends.
Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the gold drops below level 1099 and also 1088, the next drop target will be seen at level 1074.50. Upon getting to support 1096, a correction to resistance level 1104 is possible. In such case, after rebound from level 1104 the downtrend will go on with the target at 1074.50.
2. Alternative variant. It is not reasonable to consider the beginning of an uptrend unless the market rises above resistance level 1118 (“z” trendline). But in case this happens, the gold will get to resistance 1128 (“R” trendline). And if it continues to rise above that resistance, we may expect it to go as high as to 1140.
Support:
1102 (intermediate, but not weak) и 1096 (strong)
Resistance:
1112 (strong) и 1118 (key)
By going under level 1118 (the basis of a “double top” trend-turning figure) the gold has formed the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure. The potential of that figure pushes the market towards drop to level 1074.50. On the way down to that level daily and weekly trends will be turned from uptrends to downtrends.
Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the gold drops below level 1099 and also 1088, the next drop target will be seen at level 1074.50. Upon getting to support 1096, a correction to resistance level 1104 is possible. In such case, after rebound from level 1104 the downtrend will go on with the target at 1074.50.
2. Alternative variant. It is not reasonable to consider the beginning of an uptrend unless the market rises above resistance level 1118 (“z” trendline). But in case this happens, the gold will get to resistance 1128 (“R” trendline). And if it continues to rise above that resistance, we may expect it to go as high as to 1140.
Support:
1102 (intermediate, but not weak) и 1096 (strong)
Resistance:
1112 (strong) и 1118 (key)
Forecast for the next month, March - April. Daily graph (dated 03/22/10)
After rebounding from the “neckline” (the purple trendline) of “head and shoulders” figure the market couldn’t develop an uptrend. For this reason, a minor figure of the same type has been formed, and it is about to take effect and turn the market, starting a downtrend with drop targets at levels 1040 and 970.
Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. The right shoulder of “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure gets formed, and the figure takes effect after the market goes below levels 1099 and 1088. In such case the drop target level will be set to 1040 (“K” trendline). And if the gold gets under this level, it will reach 970 (“Z” trendline).
2. Alternative variant. If the market fails consolidating under 1099 and rises above 1128, the gold will get to level 1171, and then also to 1126 possibly.
Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. The right shoulder of “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure gets formed, and the figure takes effect after the market goes below levels 1099 and 1088. In such case the drop target level will be set to 1040 (“K” trendline). And if the gold gets under this level, it will reach 970 (“Z” trendline).
2. Alternative variant. If the market fails consolidating under 1099 and rises above 1128, the gold will get to level 1171, and then also to 1126 possibly.
Forecast for the next quarter, April - June. Weekly graph (dated 03/22/10)
Taking to account the picture at daily graph, we can make a conclusion that the “D-D+” uptrend’s turn potential is very high. Beginning of downside to level 1040, and then to 975 and 900 is very probable.
Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the market goes under level 1088, it will start a downtrend with the end drop target at level 900 (under condition that the gold successfully passes support level 975).
First, the market is supposed to get to support 1040 (“K” trendline). After that, a correction to 1088 is possible. After the correction is complete and the gold eventually gets under 1040, it will reach support 975 (“Z” trendline). Next, the market will probably go for a correction to resistance 1040 again, after which it will finally get to level 900 (the lower bound of the global uptrend) of course under condition that it passes 975 the second time.
2. Alternative variant. If the gold fails consolidating below level 1088 and rises above 1145, we may expect it to go up to level 1126 (September high). And in case it will continue rising above that level, getting to 1400 becomes possible.
Support:
1040 (intermediate) and 975 (intermediate but strong)
Resistance:
1145 (intermediate) and 1126 (strong, key resistance)
Let’s discuss two variants of events to proceed:
1. In case the market goes under level 1088, it will start a downtrend with the end drop target at level 900 (under condition that the gold successfully passes support level 975).
First, the market is supposed to get to support 1040 (“K” trendline). After that, a correction to 1088 is possible. After the correction is complete and the gold eventually gets under 1040, it will reach support 975 (“Z” trendline). Next, the market will probably go for a correction to resistance 1040 again, after which it will finally get to level 900 (the lower bound of the global uptrend) of course under condition that it passes 975 the second time.
2. Alternative variant. If the gold fails consolidating below level 1088 and rises above 1145, we may expect it to go up to level 1126 (September high). And in case it will continue rising above that level, getting to 1400 becomes possible.
Support:
1040 (intermediate) and 975 (intermediate but strong)
Resistance:
1145 (intermediate) and 1126 (strong, key resistance)