GOLD forecast
17 March 2010
H1 graph
The market quit from the uptend. Judging from the way the daily candle was closed today, bearish intentions are confirmed and the gold is heading down. Hence, variants of events to proceed are as follows:
Variant #1:
Resistance is at level 1128. The market may start dropping from current level or from 1128, in case of which a “double top” trend-turning figure will be formed. The drop target is seen at level 1115.
Variant #2:
Since it’s not convenient to consider the uptrend’s continuation from current levels, we can consider it in case the gold gets down to 1115 and rebounds from there. If after rebound the market rises above level 1120, we may expect it to continue upside to resistance level 1128 - 1131.
Support:
1115
Resistance:
1128 и 1131
H4 graph
The market quit from the uptend. Judging from the way the daily candle was closed today, bearish intentions are confirmed and the gold is heading down. Hence, variants of events to proceed are as follows:
Variant #1:
Resistance is at level 1128. The market may start dropping from current level or from 1128, in case of which a “double top” trend-turning figure will be formed. The drop target is seen at level 1115.
Variant #2:
Since it’s not convenient to consider the uptrend’s continuation from current levels, we can consider it in case the gold gets down to 1115 and rebounds from there. If after rebound the market rises above level 1120, we may expect it to continue upside to resistance level 1128 - 1131.
Support:
1115
Resistance:
1128 и 1131
H4 graph
Variant #1
The market is trading along the “a-a+” downtrend, continuation of which can not be predicted (due to a huge accumulation of supports below the current price level) until the gold drops below level 1082; in such case it will get down to 1040.
Variant #2:
If the market decides to develop an uptrend, it’s better to buy from level 1119 (Y trendline), since an accumulation of strong resistances is found right below that level. In such case the gold will get to resistance 1135 and form the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure. After that we may expect it to drop to 1100.
The market is trading along the “a-a+” downtrend, continuation of which can not be predicted (due to a huge accumulation of supports below the current price level) until the gold drops below level 1082; in such case it will get down to 1040.
Variant #2:
If the market decides to develop an uptrend, it’s better to buy from level 1119 (Y trendline), since an accumulation of strong resistances is found right below that level. In such case the gold will get to resistance 1135 and form the right shoulder of a “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure. After that we may expect it to drop to 1100.
Daily graph (15.03.10)
See weekly graph forecast.
Weekly graph (from 15.03.10)
The market is trading along the “D-D+” uptrend, the top of which passed to consolidation stage. Whatever Soros says towards the thesis that the gold will soon cost 1400, and no matter how much he supposedly invests to it (“inflating the golden bubbles”), the market still looks bearish, which accords to the whole currency market (if eurusd and gbpusd on weekly graphs will go for the variant #1 of my forecast).
In case the gold gets under level 1082, the “D-D+” uptrend will lose its strength and then level 1040 (K trendline) will be reached. That level may provide a decent support, however the trend will be more to a downtrend by then (of course unless the market forms a trend-continuing figure at 1040). After that we may expect the gold to drop to 975 (Z trendline) and then to 900 (the lower bound of the global uptrend). But level 975 looks much more real.
And if the gold will form a trend-continuing figure at 1040, then the market will have a very good chance to rise above 1152, then go to 1226 and to the final target 1400 - this variant is plausible as well. In such case level 1040 will be the completion level of wave 4, and level 1400 will be the completion level of wave 5. Probably this variant may be executed even from level 975, but now it is too early to discuss it. First we need to wait until the currency market loses its heavy load on weekly graphs.
In case the gold gets under level 1082, the “D-D+” uptrend will lose its strength and then level 1040 (K trendline) will be reached. That level may provide a decent support, however the trend will be more to a downtrend by then (of course unless the market forms a trend-continuing figure at 1040). After that we may expect the gold to drop to 975 (Z trendline) and then to 900 (the lower bound of the global uptrend). But level 975 looks much more real.
And if the gold will form a trend-continuing figure at 1040, then the market will have a very good chance to rise above 1152, then go to 1226 and to the final target 1400 - this variant is plausible as well. In such case level 1040 will be the completion level of wave 4, and level 1400 will be the completion level of wave 5. Probably this variant may be executed even from level 975, but now it is too early to discuss it. First we need to wait until the currency market loses its heavy load on weekly graphs.
